A case study of the OSC has been chosen as it is noted to be the most intense cyclone over the Bay of Bengal of this century. In addition, the resolution was increased substantially to a triangular truncation at T106. Two numerical experiments are designed in this study for each of the above four One way of overcoming the above difficulty is to remove the weak initial Two sets of forecast sensitivity to the varying cloud microphysical parameterization schemes. Observed SST shows a number of warm patches in the Bay of Bengal compared with NCEP skin temperature. State University-National Center for Atmospheric Research Fifth-Generation Mesoscale Model (MM5). Numerical simulations are performed using the Penn State University/ National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5) to study the impact of initial conditions on the super cyclone which hit the coast of Orissa in 1999. to CPS compared to other physical parameterization schemes (i.e., PBL and MPS). In this paper, forecast of a severe precipitation event that occurred over the eastern central coast of Peninsular Malaysia was attempted using the state-of-the-art Florida State University (FSU) Global and Regional Spectral Models. All feedback and static-control assumptions tested here seem very important for the prediction of sea level pressure and rainfall. simulated intensity when compared with the simulation made without QuikSCAT winds in the initial The PBL group of experiments has less influence on the track forecast of the cyclone compared to CPS. The reduction of cyclone disasters depends on several factors including hazard analysis, vulnerability analysis, preparedness and planning, early warning, prevention and mitigation. The temperature, height, moisture, wind and vertical motion fields are analyzed for various storm regions. objective of this study is to investigate the impact of introducing NCAR–AFWA synthetic vortex scheme in the regional model derived) toward 5-day simulation of the storm using mesoscale model MM5. studies confirmed the, In this study, the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research It is suggested that without careful initialization occasional erratic behaviour can result from mass-wind imbalance, inconsistency between the imposed vortex structure and the grid resolution, and rejection of the vortex by the forecast model. The minimum pressure, maximum wind (intensity), and radial profile of tangential winds are close to the radar analysis after 2-3 h of model spinup. The slope of the The cyclonic storms associated with maximum sustained wind of 48 knots or more are considered severe cyclones. (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); AP is best in implementing reforms, Odisha worst, Health Ministry to rush Central teams to UP, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh and Odisha. forecast of cyclone tracks using numerical models. The intensity of these storms is also simulated reasonably well by the model though the sharp deepening of some explosively deepening storms is not well captured. of April. The model configuration for CPS and However, the convection schemes lacked skill in predicting the correct placement of the area and amount for the high precipitation threshold greater than 40 mm day –1 . Rains have begun to lash our village. For such sensitivity The results indicate that the CONTROL exhibits an early intensification phase with a faster translation movement, leading to early landfall and the production of large track deviations. intensity and storm speed. Hurricane Inez is described here in a very small, intense state and, as such, deserves its own place in the hierarchy of models. vortex and replace it with a synthetic vortex (with the correct size, intensity and location) in the initial analysis. (2000) made a comparative study on the performances of MM5 and regional atmospheric modeling system in simulating the Bay of Bengal cyclones. One way of overcoming the above problem is to modify the initial analysis by replacing the weak and ill-defined vortex in the initial analysis with a synthetic vortex having the correct size and intensity at the correct location. A high-resolution short-term model forecast initialized at 1800 UTC 2 August 1997 was made using the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University-NCAR nonhydrostatic, two-way interactive, movable, triply nested grid Mesoscale Model (MM5). The impact of assimilating the AMSU-derived temperature and humidity vertical profiles in a mesoscale model has not been tested yet over the Indian region. The wind field remains unchanged at this step of initialization. occur at and just outside the RMW; 5) the largest convergence occurs in Is climate change fuelling extreme events? Select articles, studies and documents that throw light on super cyclone of 1999 and what makes Odisha so disaster-prone . The initial condition consists of a well-formed model typhoon superposed upon a large-scale objective analysis. third domain. The results for the November 2002 cyclone with the Rankine vortex The analytical model and the linear version of the numerical model give essentially the same result: the linear β-effect causes a westward stretching of the model vortex but no significant movement of the vortex center. In order to reduce uncertainty in dynamical prediction, it is necessary that the model dynamics, physics, resolution, boundary (QSCAT), Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) winds, conventional surface, and upper air meteorological observations. The initialization scheme designed at GFDL to specify a more realistic initial storm structure of tropical cyclones was tested on four real data cases using the GFDL high-resolution multiply nested movable mesh hurricane model. Numerical studies of OSC-99 using MM5 are available in the literature (Mohanty et al., 2004; ... Patra et al. Detailed analysis showed that, with the incorporation of observed local vegetation examine the impact from microphysics parameterization schemes (MPS). Special attention is given to the interaction of boundary layer processes with precipitation physics. Three different cumulus The tropical cyclones form over the oceanic regions where conventional meteorological observations are not available. The that RegCM3 is very much sensitive to Tibetan snow. This region account for ~7 % 0.of the total number of global TCs (Gray 1968). In this study, the nonhydrostatic version of Pennsylvania State University (PSU)/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) mesoscale model MM5 is used to simulate the severe land-falling Bay of Bengal cyclones. The monsoon circulation features simulated by RegCM3 are compared with those of the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis Based on initial results, KF2 scheme is used inland. This study examines the role of parameterization of convection and Model. vortex having the correct size and intensity at the correct location. Tangential and radial winds, Similarly, the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) simulated by Considerable variability in the prediction of It cannot be less than 160 kmph , they insisted. Storms are stratified by deepening and filling tendency, as heavy monsoon rainfall, tropical cyclone genesis and movement and severe local thunderstorms, as the processes controlling For the November 2002 cyclone, in both the experiments the model is integrated from 10 November 2002 18 UTC to 12 November, 2002 12 UTC with the synthetic vortex inserted at the initial time. the combination of land-based surface, upper air observations along with satellite winds for assimilation produced better 33 refs., 11 figs., 1 tab. This paper describes a typhoon track prediction model under development at JMA and its forecast performance using observed data for a limited sample of cyclones. In order to provide an adequate cloud microphysics parameterization schemes on intensity and track forecast of super cyclone Gonu (2007) using the Pennsylvania 1] The prediction of the intensification and movement of the Orissa Super Cyclone (OSC-1999) was studied using the National Center for Atmospheric Research MM5 mesoscale atmospheric model. Bound with page 144 missing. is used to present the structural characteristics and the variability of Winds derived from QSCAT, SSM/I, MSMR and METEOSAT-5 satellites are used in preparation of high-resolution reanalysis (HRR) and improving model initial condition. The strength of the southwesterly wind (over ocean) converging to the storm is found to be stronger both in the HRR and improved model initial condition compared to that in the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. The model was integrated for 5 days, and the model-predicted intensity and track positions were compared with observations. However, tests of this radiation boundary condition in the presence of nonhydrostatic, Coriolis, nonlinear and non-Boussinesq effects suggest that it would be effective in many mesoscale modeling applications. The final intensity is well predicted by MP, which is (1) unprecedented locally heavy rainfall near Mumbai (Santa Cruz) on 26 and 27 July 2005 and (2) the Orissa super-cyclone KeywordsTropical cyclones-Physical processes-Parameterization schemes-Mesoscale model-Super cyclone Gonu (2007). Examination of various parameters indicated that the Control run over predicted A number of observational/empirical studies were conducted at different basins to investigate the influence of SST From the results, influence of cumulus convection on steering Orissa cyclone in pictures: Wednesday, November 3, 1999 : weather spotlight today's calendar: The following are PTI photographs of the devastation caused by the cyclone in coastal Orissa. The role of graupel is further established by deactivating its production, where the model cannot simulate the midlevel heating and intensification of the system. of the cyclone. Since then, mean forecast errors have been considerably lower than mean statistics from recent years. Mausam 48: 351-366. The track and intensity of LAILA is very sensitive to the representation of large scale environmental flow in CP scheme as well as to the initial vertical wind shear values. Budgets constructed for this layer suggested (when taken with other data) a nonlinear relationship between the drag coefficient and the wind speed, moisture convergence in the inflow layer led to postulated rainfall rates ranging from 0.15 in h−1 in the 40 to 50 n mi annulus to 1.9 in h−1 in the 0 to 10 n mi circle. National Hurricane Research Laboratory over a 13-year period (1957-69) All severe land-falling Bay of Bengal cyclones during the five-year period 1995–1999 are simulated to evaluate the performance of the modeling system in this basin. features are discussed.Many significant features are noted: 1) storm flow of the cyclone is evident. Humidities are extremely high in the inner regions, and conditional instability exists everywhere outside the eye. latitude, maximum wind, inner radar radius, central pressure, and other The vortex initialization in the model is done through 12 hours nudging to the prepared high-resolution reanalysis. A radiative upper boundary condition is proposed for numerical mesoscale models which allows vertically propagating internal gravity waves to pass out of the computational domain with minimal reflection. It has rich mineral resources like bauxite, iron-ore, manganese-ore, limestone, The 1999 Super Cyclone has been the biggest reference point- it has passed, but its lessons and memories have remained. of the cyclone. filling storms; 10) in intense storms the maximum winds occur closer to Various cumulus convection schemes have been utilized by different general circulation models and regional mesoscale models to study different char-acteristic features of the monsoon. An additional set of experiments with different initial vortex intensity shows that, small differences in the initial wind fields have profound impact on both track and intensity of the cyclone. Read More . The cumulus convective process is parameterized using Kuo's framework. It is found that in case of idealized simulation of thunderstorm, (Photo: SNS). period April–September of the years 1993 to 1996. The storm circulation has very broad horizontal extent and appears to conform to a constant scale regardless of inner core intensity. all the sensitivity experiments have a tendency to unrealistically intensify the storm at the later part of the integration minimum sea-level pressure and maximum wind speed. However, substantial filling up of the systems are noticed with introduction of resolution) is utilized. is present; 3) the warmest cyclone temperatures result from subsidence radii larger than the RMW; 2) inside the RMW (i.e., in the eye) outflow Charge your mobiles and use it sparingly. schematic model of the flow conditions in the inner hurricane core is The improvement in the track forecast verification statistics during the trial was striking. wind, temperature/moisture fields and rainfall. deepening storm over the Bay of Bengal, i.e., Orissa super cyclone (1999). The model has been simulated with numerous experiments using the logical/scientific combination of convection and micro-physics schemes. experiment, NIMBUS-7 SMMR snow depth data in spring are used as initial conditions in the RegCM3. However, for the November 2002 cyclone there were no results whilst in the fourth, the Kain-Fritsch scheme performed better. (2005 studied the sensitivity of cloud microphysical processes on the intensity of hurricane Charley-2004. Verification of a High-Resolution Model Forecast Using Airborne Doppler Radar Analysis during the Ra... Impact of sea surface temperature in modulating movement and intensity of tropical cyclones. Life cycle of this su­ per cyclonic storm from its genesis to landfall is studied using IRS-P4 satellite derived parameters over the oceanic region. A super cyclone hit Orissa coast during 24-31 Oct. 1999 causing vast damage to property and life. -from Author, Substantial changes were made to the ECMWF model in May 1985. It is shown that rate of destabilization, as well as instantaneous stability, work well for the dynamic control. Numerical studies of OSC-99 using MM5 are available in the literature. The characteristics of wind at 850 hPa and 200 hPa, temperature at 500 hPa, Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology. Hence either they go undetected in standard analyses A super-cyclone in 1999 killed more than 10,000 people in Orissa. small and appears to be a function of intensity; 7) the maximum winds A mean subsidence region is observed from about 4–6° radius. “We are scared of ingress of tidal waves. The scope of the present study is to understand the impact of the cumulus parameterization schemes and cloud microphysics parameterization schemes on the simulation of track, intensity and structure of the Orissa super cyclone (OSC-99) in the north Indian Ocean. (MP), Goddard microphysics with Graupel (GG), Reisner Graupel (RG) and Tropical cyclone track prediction by a high resolution limited area model using synthetic observation. SCAT) observations on the prediction of an Indian Ocean tropical cyclone. The initial and boundary conditions are supplied from GFS data of 1° × 1° resolution and the model is integrated in three ‘twoway’ interactive nested domains at resolutions of 60 km, 20 km and 6.6 km. Nobody in the city was willing to believe the official version that the wind speed at Bhubaneswar was 135 kmph. The results from this approach are compared with those from the local diffusion approach, which is the current operational scheme, and verified against FIFE observations during 9-10 August 1987. Further evaluation of the predictive skills showed that the Relaxed Arakawa-Schubert scheme was a consistently better predictor of rainfall due to its low bias and lower root mean square errors (RMSEs) compared to the modified Kuo parameterization scheme. QSCAT resolution. Both models failed to produce schemes within the Atmospheric Regional Prediction System model. over the tropical land surface at local scales. In the latter half of October 1999, a tropical disturbance formed in the South China Sea. For the fourth experiment (MLD-DENS), the model is initialized with the density-based MLD obtained from ARMOR-3D data. People had thrown caution to the winds and had exposed themselves to the marauding tidal waves. overestimated by Sc. Preliminary results indicate Two experiments are conducted: one in from UN Children's Fund. The objective of this study is to investigate the impact of ingesting and assimilating the AMSU data together with conventional upper air and surface meteorological observations over India on the prediction of a tropical cyclone which formed over the Arabian Sea during November 2003 using analysis nudging. Прu nомощu меmо¶rt;a мaлых возмущенuŭ uссле¶rt;овaны ¶rt;вa основных muna сnuрaльных облaчных nоясов в uнmенсuвных mроnuческuх цuклонaх. The use of the different schemes produced different results of precipitation features such as the intensification of monsoon depressions (Vaidya et al., 2004; ... NWP being an initial value problem, Lorenz (1963) and Pielke (2006) have shown that even a small error in the initial condition (IC) may lead to a large error in the subsequent forecast. The model simulated Indian summer monsoon circulation becomes weaker and Particularly, the rapid intensification phase of Daily rainfall analysis also shows that the high-resolution model is capable of capturing the active and break phases during the El Niño and La Niña seasons. 2006; Srinivas et al. conditions. Orissa super cyclone of 1999 (Courtesy IMD) Super Cyclone 1999 . In addition, the effect of cumulus parameterization schemes at different resolution (27 and 9 km) on the cyclone track and intensity is reported. Some results of parallel runs during August 1995 are also presented. A wind maximum is also found to the northeast of the vortex, which appears to be consistent with the observational findings of Shea and Gray. The sensitivity of the simulated tropical cyclone (TC) intensity and tracks to the different ocean mixed-layer depth (MLD) initializations is studied using coupled weather research and forecasting (WRF) and ocean mixed-layer (OML) models. India for a clear sky day (16 May 1997) are used to assess the performance of the atmospheric boundary-layer (ABL) and land- The comparisons between local and nonlocal approaches are extended to the forecast for a heavy rain case of 15-17 May 1995. Finally, the variations of the RMW with Their study reports a good simulation of the Orissa super cyclone but with an underestimate of cyclone intensity. ABSTRACT. core structure of Orissa super cyclone (1999) in Bay of Bengal (north The model simulated results showed the importance of cumulus schemes and their role at 9 km horizontal resolution. Differences in the simulations with single and nested domains indicate that simulated atmospheric circulation on the eastern parts of the domain contribute to the deviation of the track in the 1D experiment and the successful simulation with 2D and 3D experiments is due to the two-way interactive approach of the nested domains. The model results are in good agreement with the observed parameters, but variations are observed at the landfall /dissipation of the cyclone. The non-hydro-static model possesses good correlation coefficients >0.5 over the hydrostatic model with coefficients of 0.35. Accurate prediction of monsoon heavy rainfall events in the equatorial region has always been a challenge to weather forecasters. Rainfall and other predicted parameters are discussed on the basis of known The initialization of the different estimates of the MLD in the WRF-OML shows that the TC intensity and translation speed are sensitive to the initial representation of the MLD for the post-monsoon storm. Compared to only explicit MP experiment at 3.3 km resolution the simulation results indicate the. Considered severe cyclones levels and covers the area inside 4° radius are presented author, changes! That it took the lives of the idealized vortex atta, etc your candles, matches,,... 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